Clappy Presents The Box Office Recap

[Katniss]

I think the bad buzz from Fantastic Four might drive people to watch it to see how bad it really is.

[Space Cowboy]

welp it looks like those reviews did sway people from seeing FF, the box office isn't looking so good... 

[BoJack Horseman]

I think the bad buzz from Fantastic Four might drive people to watch it to see how bad it really is.

Or they'll watch it because it's a superhero movie.

[70s]

I'm sad Fantastic Four turned out to be garbage, I really like Miles Teller and Michael B. Jordan.

[BoJack Horseman]

I'm sad Fantastic Four turned out to be garbage, I really like Miles Teller and Michael B. Jordan.

I think Fox should let the franchise dead. It's not going to get better.

[70s]

I think Fox should let the franchise dead. It's not going to get better.

 

Unfortunately they refuse to do that because then Marvel would get the rights to their own characters.

[BoJack Horseman]

Unfortunately they refuse to do that because then Marvel would get the rights to their own characters.

I think Marvel would do way better job at the franchise. I mean Guardians of the Galaxy was executed perfectly.

[70s]

I think Marvel would do way better job at the franchise. I mean Guardians of the Galaxy was executed perfectly.

 

Probably true, though at this point I'm starting to wonder if maybe these characters just can't be done right in a movie. 

[Burgerpants]

Holy shit, just two or three weeks in and 4 Fant 4 Stic's already scraping the bottom of the Top 10.

[Clappy]

Holy shit, just two or three weeks in and 4 Fant 4 Stic's already scraping the bottom of the Top 10.

Thanks for reminding me how neglectful I've been to this topic. xD

 

So yeah, I'll be honest.  Part of the reason I haven't done any updates lately is due to this time frame always tends to be super boring.  I can't think of a more dull time frame for the box office than mid August through September except for a majority of January at times.  It's rare when something exciting happens at the box office to report on.

 

But with that in mind, let's go over a few things before I talk about this upcoming weekend.

 

-Fan4stic....I already reviewed that so I don't need to insert my thoughts.  I'm glad it's bombing this badly.  It's definitely going to be one of the biggest stories of 2015 in terms of the movie industry.  This is historically bad all the way around.

 

-Straight Outta Compton's udder domination is slightly surprising.  It's another massive win for Universal who is having a hot streak like no other movie studio right now and has made so much money in 2015 that they can probably experiment on whatever they want for awhile.  Just amazing.  As for the movie itself, go check it out.  Slightly surprised to hear that the movie could potentially generate Oscar buzz.  I know it's getting good reviews, but not that level of good.  I guess we'll wait and see if Universal is willing to expand this again around Oscar season.  Expect this to make about as much, maybe a bit more than Pitch Perfect 2 domestically.

 

-Not surprised to see The Man from U.N.C.L.E. underperforming.  Maybe Armie Hammer and Henry Cavill will be box office stars one day (at least when Henry isn't Superman), but not right now.  I blame this on poor scheduling by Warner Brothers.  Once Paramount moved up MI5's release date, this project was screwed in terms of making more money.

 

-Not even going to bother giving full recaps to Sinister 2, Hitman 2, and American Ultra.  All of them performed how I expected them to perform, which is a shame for the latter because with good reviews, American Ultra could have potentially been a breakout hit.  It's concept was intriguing enough.  The former two were just unnecessary sequels.

 

...so with that in mind...sigh...let's talk about our new releases....I'm bored already

 

We Are Your Friends

No Escape (opened Wednesday)

 

Ok so maybe these aren't entirely boring, but they aren't going to be breakout hits.  Guarantee that.

 

We Are Your Friends is a Zac Efron EDM drama....yes such a thing exists.  Here's the thing though.  Zac Efron is a likeable enough actor that has a fan base.  Yet, his fans don't always show up for his works.  For every hit he has like High School Musical 3, The Lucky One, and Neighbors, he also has a That Awkward Moment, Charlie St. Cloud, or The Paperboy.  Don't recognize any of those latter titles?  Well none of them were that financially successful.  Expect We Are Your Friends (horrible title might I add) to perform like those other three and open with 7-8 million.

 

No Escape on the other hand...just what.  An Owen Wilson action thriller?  Does this really exist?  Why?  I'm confused.  I get that Owen Wilson is trying to do anything to revitalize his career but go do a Woody Allen movie.  Go do a Wes Anderson movie.  You know, things that actually gave you critical praise.  Not something this what the fuck-ish.  Pierce Brosnan is also in this because of course he is.  Ironic tbh since both of our two leads career's are floundering, Pierce more so than Owen.  This barely made over a million on Wednesday and might make less tonight.  Give it about the same projector rate as the Zac Efron EDM drama.

 

Which means Straight Outta Compton should repeat as number one for the third week in a row.  Give it about 13-14 million as it continues to hold well and could possibly win next weekend too with how lackluster next weeks movies are too.

 

 

GOOD MOVIES.  PLEASE COME BACK SOON!

[70s]

I was hoping We Are Your Friends would be good despite knowing deep down it wouldn't be.

 

Also, you forgot Zac Efron's best movie 

 

[Clappy]

I was hoping We Are Your Friends would be good despite knowing deep down it wouldn't be.

 

Also, you forgot Zac Efron's best movie 

 

Of course I wouldn't forget Hairspray, one of the best movies of 2007.

 

Yeah the reviews for We Are Your Friends are pretty mixed to negative so that's not helping it out either.

[Clappy]

Update is still coming tomorrow or Monday about this weekend, but I just have to say now that I completely underestimated the power of faith-based movie War Room, which could possibly win this weekend in barely 1000 theaters.  While I also completely overestimated We Are Your Friends which might not even make 2 million this weekend.

[Clappy]

Well consider this earlier than expected, but figured I better have this out earlier than norm due to the lack of attention I've been giving this topic.  So here are the estimated Top 10, which is probably going to be accurate anyway.

 

1. Straight Outta Compton - 13.2 milion / 134.1 million

2. War Room - 11 million / 11 million

3. Mission Impossible: Rogue Nation - 8.3 million / 170.4 million

4. No Escape - 8.2 million / 10.4 million

5. Sinister 2 - 4.7 million / 18.6 million

6. The Man From U.N.C.L.E. - 4.4 million / 34.1 million

7. Hitman 2 - 3.8 million / 15.2 million

8. The Gift - 3.1 million / 36 million

9. Jurassic World - 3.1 million / 643.1 million

10. Ant-Man - 3 million / 169.1 million

 

Minor thoughts since this weekend was as big a bore as I lead you on to.

 

-Straight Outta Compton winning the weekend still came as no surprise despite the slight scare of War Room which I'll get to shortly, but christian based movies tend to usually be front loaded opening weekend day and that happened again here, so it allowed Compton to stabilize and retake the crown.  So where does it go from here?  It could win the weekend again possibly next weekend if The Transporter reboot bombs (and there is a slight chance it could happen), but I think this will only be a three-peat winner and not the rare four-peat.  Still it's one good movie and it's on it's way to being one of the most successful music biopics of all time.

 

-So the major surprise that I COMPLETELY underestimated to the point of not even acknowledging it is faith based drama War Room.  I should have seen this coming in retrospect since one of 2014's big trends was the outbreak of faith based films becoming box office hits.  2015 has had none of those up til this point that I completely did not acknowledge it in this topic and it came back to bite me in the ass.  While I don't think War Room will be as successful as God's Not Dead or Heaven Is For Real, it has a chance of at least making 30-40 million now.  Especially with it's A+ Cinema Score which will counteract all the rotten reviews, which both faith based dramas last year also got.

 

-Mission Impossible has been in the Top 3 for 5 weekends now.  Let that sink in in terms of how slow this time frame is.  All the power to Mission Impossible for being this successful though.

 

-No Escape made what I thought it was going to make.  It will make 20 million-ish overall before we forget this existed.

 

-Sinister 2 actually managed to hold well for horror movies.  I hate this time frame.

 

-The Man From UNCLE is still a disappointment, but because the new releases straight up suck or are lackluster at best, it's still holding well enough to at least make 40-50 million possibly.

 

-Hitman 2 happened.  People will forget about it by the end of the year.

 

-The Gift I guess is our indie breakout hit of the summer.  It's a good representation of how well legs work out when you make a damn good movie like this one.  Granted I haven't seen it yet personally, I'll take everyone's word for it being amazing.

 

-This time frame sucks so badly that even Jurassic World managed to return to the Top 10 for the first time in two-three weeks.  Granted it got re-released in hundreds of theaters, but it has no reason to be in the Top 10 right now except to pad Universal's pockets.

 

-Ant-Man is still in the Top 10 because, you guessed it.  However, I will give the movie credit.  Despite it being a lower-tier Marvel movie financially, it's about to catch the first Captain America movie in terms of profit domestically.  That's pretty damn impressive when people were writing it off after it's lackluster opening weekend.  Also what happens when a movie gets good word of mouth.

 

 

So yeah, I hate this time frame and Labor Day weekend brings two new releases.  The aforementioned new Transporter reboot and A Walk In The Woods.  One actually looks pretty good for a comedy.  The other is an incredibly unnecessary reboot to a series that should have been left for good in the early-mid 2000s where it belongs.  I expect both to not revive the box office from it's current lull and nothing to until possibly mid-late September.  We are in for a rough few more weeks people.

[Katniss]

Wow, I haven't even heard of some of these films in the top 10 or any of the films set to come out next week. You're still doing a good job with the recaps; it's not your fault that this time of year is so boring

 

Can't wait for September/October for the start of (hopefully) a more interesting box office, especially October since it has a bunch of interesting-looking films set to premiere (save for Jem and the Holograms, at least).

[Less_SpongeBob]

Thought Jurassic World getting back to the top 10 was dissapointing enough. Most of the theaters in my area are rereleasing EVERYTHING from the past few months because of how bad they're performing now. Inside Out, Dope, Pixels, Southpaw, Amy, Trainwreck, Mad Max, heck, even that Jaws re-release are coming back just because it's less risky than these new flops at this point.

[Burgerpants]

Thought Jurassic World getting back to the top 10 was dissapointing enough. Most of the theaters in my area are rereleasing EVERYTHING from the past few months because of how bad they're performing now. Inside Out, Dope, Pixels, Southpaw, Amy, Trainwreck, Mad Max, heck, even that Jaws re-release are coming back just because it's less risky than these new flops at this point.

Well, Everest could put an end to the slump, right?

[Clappy]

Ok so with my new job hours being ridiculously random, I'm not going to guarantee this every weekend (if you haven't figured it out by now lol), but when I'm here I'll try. So allow me to recap what I've missed:

-Labor Day weekend was uninteresting af. Totally wasn't surprised The Transporter reboot did nothing. Walk in the Woods did alright and showed that the senior citizen crowd loves movies aimed for them too. War Room taking number one was a total surprise. War Room's staying power so far has been incredibly interesting. I could definitely see this making between 50-60 million at least if it continues to hold under 25 percent every weekend like it has done so far.

-So you know how much I've been complaining about there being nothing to see new or exciting and how much crap we've gotten for the past month. Well the movie going audience felt the same with last weekend's results being big for early September. The Perfect Guy winning the weekend wasn't a total surprise. Screen Gems (movie studio) has post-Labor Day weekend on lockdown with the third straight number one movie on this weekend. How do you make a shit ton of money off this time frame? By releasing an urban thriller/drama. The Perfect Guy was a nearly identical replica of last year's No Good Deed and made a bit more with about 26 million. This weekend will probably fall hard for it, but who cares when these types of movies are made for so cheap. The Perfect Guy more than likely made back it's budget on opening day. Everything else it earns will just be gravy on top. Huge win like always for Screen Gems who keeps making movies for cheap only to earn back a shit ton with such a small output every year film wise.

The other BIG winner was the return of M Night Shyamalan and The Visit. My personal opinion aside for this overrated garbage movie, it performed very well ALMOST beating out The Perfect Guy. This is a big win for Shyamalan who financed this movie himself and made 5x it's budget (not including commercials). While this also is going to fall hard because it's a horror movie, this is just another win for Universal and a bigger win for Shyamalan, who's film career is temporarily taken off life support.

Now onto THIS weekend. This was the weekend I was looking forward to that I originally thought would revitalize the box office before last weekend. We have five new releases. Two wide and three limited with potential to grow.

The Maze Runner: The Scorch Trials

Black Mass

Everest (IMAX only this weekend, nationwide expansion next)

Captive (limited)

Sicario (limited this weekend, limited expansion next)

-After the surprising success of The Maze Runner, of course Fox took the path taken by the umpteen movie studios before it and adapt the rest of this teen adventure franchise. Reaction to The Maze Runner was positive and actually held very well last fall to make over 100 million domestically, so it should be a lock to grow on that domestic gross with the sequel right? Well...I think it might. Everyone thought that Insurgent would make more than Divergent, only for it to not do so. The Maze Runner is in the same boat for me as Insurgent because while it's easy to see how well Harry Potter, The Hunger Games, and yes Twilight did, the audience was massive for those franchises. I honestly didn't see much of an audience for the Divergent series. I knew the series was popular, but not THAT level of popular. The Maze Runner series I know is popular, but not to those levels either. I think the one thing working for The Maze Runner that isn't working for Divergent is movie quality. The first Maze Runner was good. The two Divergent movies have been shit (to me at least). It's not a surprise the audience fell for that sequel, so I'm hoping that good word of mouth for the first Maze Runner will equal revenue growth for The Scorch Trials, which to me is the better book in all honesty. I'm going to guess that The Scorch Trials will win the weekend with about 36 million, maybe a bit more. Wouldn't surprise me if it's a bit less though either since kids are in school again.

-Now since it's the fall, that also means "prestige movie season" has begun. Here is the first guaranteed award contender of the season. While Black Mass itself isn't a lock by any means for any of the awards, it's got A LOT going for it. A rising prestige director in Scott Cooper. A lot of well known name actors/actresses like Johnny Depp, Benedict Cumberbatch, Dakota Johnson, Joel Edgerton, Kevin Bacon, and more. Being based off true events (it's about a Boston crime drama). But if I can guarantee you one category that this movie will be a serious contender in? It's best actor. Critics, the awards circuit, and more are praising Johnny Depp for his portrayal of James "Whitey" Bulger to the point that when the major award shows come around, don't be surprised if you see Johnny Depp get some serious consideration for his part. And you know what? I'm glad. Johnny Depp deserves a comeback of sorts after four-five years of so many disappointing movies and outright bombs on his resume. Now let's see if that translates for success for Black Mass box office wise. Which I think it will. Crime dramas have worked well in the past around this time frame. Hell if you want me to be more specific, The Town and The Departed both came out around this time frame and were very successful as well as being about Boston crime dramas. Look for Black Mass to do the same. Yes, I'm going out on a limb and saying that this will be the first successful Johnny Depp movie in four-five years. I'm giving it about 20 million with financial room to grow because of it being very well reviewed too.

-These next couple are interesting. Let's start with Everest. We already have a topic for it. I won't go that far in depth, but I like the release strategy it's got going for it. Movies like this were made for IMAX so why not release it solely in IMAX first for people to give it positive word of mouth before releasing it wide. I say give this about 6 to 7 million this weekend and it will be interesting to see how this experiment pays off before the expansion.

Captive is apparently based off of the second most printed writing of all time after only The Bible. Really? How come I've never heard of it? Well if it's based off of THAT statistic, I'll be generous and say people might want to see this because of the apparent adaptation. But the limited theater count will matter. I am guessing the same 6 to 7 million range as Everest.

Sicario is another award bait movie that has some really good buzz going for it too, but not just for one category. It's a star vehicle for Emily Blunt, who really deserves more work and it wouldn't surprise me if she is a contender for Best Actress based off of the buzz going around it as well as Benicio Del Toro for Supporting Actor. What will be interesting going for it though is that Lionsgate is taking the slow release approach because while it's definitely the best reviewed award bait movie out so far, they don't want to peak too early when it comes to awards season. It's quite easy to flame out and you want to keep your momentum going strong not only through the fall, but through the winter months as well. That's why you see so many slow expansions around this time frame. Sicario will earn six digits, maybe over a million, but slow burning a film release like this is great for the long term prospects of guaranteeing a best picture nomination.

As for the holdovers, The Perfect Guy and The Visit will both fall definitely over 50 percent from last weekend because typical genre box office performances for both. Meanwhile, War Room might make 5 million while A Walk In The Woods, Mission Impossible: Rogue Nation, and Straight Outta Compton will all battle around the 2-3 million range.

Finally. Box office is interesting again. No more summer holdover re-releases for box office padding. Woo!

[BoJack Horseman]

I don't think The Visit is overrated, not even by M. Night movie standarts. There are still people who hated the movie and RT score had gone lower. I'm happy for him once and I hope his next movie will be even better.

I'm interested in seeing Sicario, which is one of the most praised movies of the year. As for Everest, It looks so intense.

[Katniss]

LOL, so I'm not the only one that sees the similarities between The Perfect Guy and No Good Deed.

 

Never read or seen the Maze Runner series but I'm sure people will turn out for that.

 

Can't wait for Sicario to get a wide release. I love Emily Blunt.