Clappy Presents The Box Office Recap

[Clappy]

Hey do you guys remember when I use to do movie news?  That seems like forever ago.  Well one of my favorite parts of doing that was recapping the domestic box office.  I kinda miss that and hearing other people's insights on how well films are doing.  So with that being said, I want to give this a second shot and talk about how movies are performing because it's summer and that's when the box office is at it's hottest.  So this will be updated at least twice a week.  On Friday (pointing out the releases for the week) and on either Sunday/Monday recapping how everyone did.  Why not start with this past weekend?  I will list off the movies from top to bottom.  The first note will be how much the movie made this past weekend, while the second note will be it's current domestic total.  So let's begin.

 

The Top 10:

 

1. Pitch Perfect 2 - 69.2 million / 69.2 million

2. Mad Max: Fury Road - 45.4 million / 45.4 million

3. The Avengers: Age of Ultron - 38.9 million / 372 million

4. Hot Pursuit - 5.7 million / 23.4 million

5. Furious 7 - 3.6 million / 343.8 million

6. Paul Blart Mall Cop 2 - 3.5 million / 62.8 million

7. The Age of Adaline - 3.2 million / 37 million

8. Home - 2.6 million / 165.5 million

9. Ex Machina - 2 million / 19.6 million

10. Far From The Maddening Crowd - 1.3 million / 2.6 million

 

Thoughts:

 

-Universal is going to make a ton of money off Pitch Perfect 2.  Not only did it outgross it's production budget, but it outgrossed the entire domestic run the original Pitch Perfect made (65 million).  That's a remarkable performance and just goes to show how much goodwill the original had since it gained a huge following when it was released on DVD.  Not sure how frontloaded this sequel will be, but Universal will probably not care since any additional cash this makes will just be more money in the bank.  Expect more Pitch Perfect sequels guys whether we want them or not.

 

-Mad Max: Fury Road was fantastic.  Definitely the best movie I've seen so far this year.  While this carries a heavy production cost, I think Warner Brothers has to be happy with how this did with such a huge break between sequels and all.  However, I think there has to be money left somewhere on the table with where this was positioned on the calendar.  Since May is definitely a notorious action film heavy month, Warner Brothers has another action movie coming out in two weeks with San Andreas.  Either way, I hope this means we get more Mad Max movies since I do hope this holds well with not only the critical acclaim, but the fan feedback has been pretty positive too.

 

-The Avengers 2...what else is there to say?  Not like I was expecting this to outgross the original, but this is going to be one of the Top 10 domestic earners of all time.  It's performance at the box office shouldn't be considered disappointing by any means.  But one has to wonder if this means Marvel is going to plan ahead for The Avengers 3 and try to give it that special feel The Avengers had that lifted it's box office performance to a whole other level.

 

-The less said about Hot Pursuit, the better.  What a piece of shit.

 

-Furious 7 should finish with somewhere between 350-355 million at this rate.  Damn great box office earner this has been.  Don't blame Universal for making an eighth installment, but I wonder how much of this additional money made was due to Paul Walker's death?

 

-Why is Paul Blart 2 still making money?  And it was still profitable?  Oh Happy Madison...your fanbase ceases to amaze me.

 

-The Age of Adaline fell pretty hard with Pitch Perfect 2 stealing the female audience it was taking in.

 

-Glad that Home has been a financial success (and much needed one at that) for DreamWorks.  I would hate to see their animation studio go under.

 

-Ex Machina looks great.  I really want to see this.

 

-I'm not even going to pretend I know anything about Far From The Maddening Crowd.  It's going to be one of the many leftovers that will get swept under the rug by Memorial Day weekend where we will have more releases to breath some life into the bottom half of the box office.  Come back Friday where I'll forecast Tomorrowland and the Poltergeist remake....as well as the second weekends of PP2 and MM and the fourth of The Avengers 2.

[Burgerpants]

-Mad Max 2 was fantastic. 

Wait, it started playing in the theaters again?

[Clappy]

Wait, it started playing in the theaters again?

Yes.  I'm allowed a typo or two every once in awhile.

[Katniss]

I'm just happy that a female-directed movie with a female main cast (Pitch Perfect 2) is doing so well at the box office.

Far From the Madding Crowd is based off of an 1800s novel by Thomas Hardy. I don't expect period piece romances to do amazingly well at the box office, even with Carey Mulligan as the star...and she doesn't have that much of a box office draw.

[Less_SpongeBob]

I still gotta see about half these. The other half I don't even want to bother with.

[Clappy]

So here are the new releases coming out this holiday weekend:

 

Poltergeist

Tomorrowland

Aloft

The Human Centipede 3 (Final Sequence)

The Farewell Party

Love at First Fight

Sunshine Superma

 

Only the first two are wide releases while everything else listed is in limited release.  Now how do I think this weekend will be played out?

 

-Tomorrowland is going to be the number one movie this weekend baring any incredibly strong holds from Pitch Perfect 2 or Fury Road.  But as I stated in my thread for this, I feel that the money it will earn this weekend could have been more had Disney marketed this a lot better.  It's one thing to be secretive with the plot, but I think this will perform slightly better than recent super secretive film project Super 8 back in 2011.  Once again, I'm not saying that Tomorrowland is going to be a bad movie.  I can't wait to see it....but now that I mentioned reviews, the mixed reviews are concerning on how well this film will hold.  I still say solid opening weekend around 45 million that could have been higher, but this will not be like other great Brad Bird films in terms of good/great holds post opening weekend.

 

-You think Tomorrowland's reviews are disappointing?  The Poltergeist remake's reviews are worse.  Not to say that modern horror movies don't get bad reviews all the time, but remaking a horror classic, one would expect a lot better effort would be put forth into it.  Especially with such a talented cast and crew behind this.  Also, who's bright idea from 20th Century Fox was it to move this to May?  Horror films have never succeeded at the box office in May.  I still think that based off of brand recognition, Poltergeist will have a decent opening weekend in that late teens, early 20 milion, which is the norm, but I don't expect this to earn any more than 40-50 million range domestically in the long run.

 

-Otherwise, our returning holdovers.  I expect both to drop, but not as much as other forecasters are calling for.  It's Memorial Day weekend which means plenty of movie going time and casual film goers will probably want to play catch up with the three other May nationwide releases (not counting Hot Pursuit because it's barely treading water).

 

PP2 - I'll give the ladies of accapella around a 50% drop to 34-35 million.

MM - Now Fury Road has been holding very well during the weekdays.  Which means it's already showing good sign of legs.  So I think this should earn around 28-29 million and continue to hold well.  Glad to see great movies get such good responses from the viewing.

A2 - So a movie that's allegedly limping it's way to over 400 million domestic....can't believe I'm saying that.  This should still be a solid hold of 20 million or so.  Now the question is will Star Wars Episode VII be the new front runner of highest grossing movie of 2015?

[Clappy]

Due to Memorial Day weekend, I was waiting for more official results.  But alas, I have to wait even longer.  So I'm just going to go ahead and post the estimates instead.

 

1. Tomorrowland - 33 million / 33 million

2. Pitch Perfect 2 - 30.8 million / 109.6 million

3. Mad Max: Fury Road - 24.8 million / 88.2 million

4. Poltergeist - 22.6 million / 22.6 million

5. The Avengers: Age of Ultron - 21.7 million / 404.9 million

6. Hot Pursuit - 3.5 million / 30 million

7. Far From The Maddening Crowd - 2.2 million / 5.4 million

8. Furious 7 - 2.1 million / 347 million

9. Paul Blart Mall Cop 2 - 1.7 million / 65.5 million

10. Home - 1.6 million / 168 million

 

Once again, these are just estimates.  None of these are official, but alas I still have a few thoughts.

 

-Tomorrowland's box office gross has to be considered a disappointment.  Once again, the marketing was, in my opinion, a miss since the general movie going public had no idea what this was.  Sure, we can say that we all thought it looked excellent because of Brad Bird's track record and the fact that it's Disney, but we can say that since we are movie buffs.  Add to the fact that reviews were mixed and now the trajectory for this is going to be interesting.  For the next three weekends, there is no family film competition.  Everything that will be released nationwide is either going to be PG-13 or R rated.  So despite all the what ifs or what could have beens, Tomorrowland can still make a good profit since it's rated PG.  Add to the fact that the whole world loves George Clooney, it could still make money in the international market.  So despite Tomorrowland's disappointing opening weekend, the chances of this still being profitable aren't entirely gone yet.

 

Also, I would like to note to major movie studios.  Memorial Day weekend has proven in the past that audiences want to spend money on major sequels released during the holiday weekend.  Last time this happened, Disney flopped with Prince of Persia: Sands of Time back in 2010.  Not saying Tomorrowland is the next Prince of Persia because Tomorrowland actually looks good.  Thankfully, Memorial Day 2016 has another X-Men movie and a sequel to live action Alice in Wonderland so 2015's mistake won't happen next year.

 

-So much for hoping for strong holdovers from last weekend.  Pitch Perfect 2 fell over 50% this weekend, but like I said a week ago, Universal probably won't care since they went above breaking even last weekend.  Any additional revenue earned will just be additional money in the bank.  Mad Max though, held better than PP2, but not by much.  At least this one was about 44-45% decrease.  While my wishes for this hold was being higher, that is still a good sign that the strong word of mouth was there.  So my guess is still that this will hold better for the next few weekends until Jurassic World comes out and takes away it's core audience.

 

-Congrats Poltergeist...you proved me wrong.  You made a few million more than I was projecting.  This will still not hold well over the weeks, especially with Insidious 3 coming the following weekend.  Scratch my final projection for this being about 45-50 million now, so just a little more wiggle room.  Sorry, I just don't see this one holding well, despite as I've mentioned, my interest in this because of the Sam Raimi involvement.  I just know how critically reviled horror movies perform.

 

-Well look what's finally starting to hold better.  While it's probably too little too late to earn more money than it could have, The Avengers 2 is still on it's way to the Top 10 grossers of all-time.  Still a damn good movie that I'm going to view again soon.

 

-It's honestly not even worth mentioning numbers 6-10.  With more films coming out these upcoming two weekends, these will all be washed away soon enough.  But I will say this.  As Katniss pointed out, I should have gone more in depth about Far From The Maddening Crowd.  But it just doesn't look interesting, even for period piece standards.  At least Human Centipede 3 didn't crack the Top 10....there is a god.

 

 

Welp, I'll be back in a few days as I forecast The Rock's new action disaster movie San Andreas and Cameron Crowe going back to his wheel house with Aloha.  Both which I think could possibly outperform early prognostics.

[Katniss]

This is probably one of my favorite topics now. I love hearing your box office thoughts

[Burgerpants]

Welp, I'll be back in a few days

i need a specific amount of days

[Clappy]

i need a specific amount of days

Took last weekend off after I went on my unexpected trip.  Going to do another update tomorrow.

[Clappy]

Well.  Time to do this thing so Bubblerock doesn't bump this to intentionally make me look like a fool.

 

Spoiler

No offense mang.

 

As I said above, my apologies for no update last weekend.  I got offered a babysitting job last minute near our nation's capital and I couldn't pass on making good money at the time.  As always, real life is more of a priority than the internet.  I'll do a minor recap in this post when I go over projections for this weekend.  Here are the new releases for THIS weekend though:

 

 

Entourage (came out Wednesday)

Spy

Insidious Chapter 3

Love & Mercy

Testament of Youth

 

The first three are our major releases for the weekend, while the latter two will be in limited release.  I do think Love and Mercy could be a major player somewhere down the line because it's getting very good reviews for a limited release, which could mean it possibly being an awards bait film somewhere down the line.  Not to mention that it's a biopic for former Beach Boys frontman Brian Wilson...and if the Academy loves two things, it's awards bait films and biopics.  I don't think this movie is going away anytime soon despite it being a non-factor this weekend.  So with that said, let's forecast this.

 

-The number one film is without a doubt going to be Spy.  It's 95% fresh on Rotten Tomatoes and Paul Feig/Melissa McCarthy collaborations have been hits with the public audience.  What's very surprising though is that the actor getting attention for this is Jason Statham, which this is going to be a very good year for this underrated actor with his villainous turn in Furious 7 and now his comedic turn in this.  However, I don't expect this to be a big earner just yet.  Why is that?  Because of Melissa's last starring role, Tammy.  Tammy was universally panned by critics not to mention audiences.  While I do think the Melissa McCarthy brand is still going to turn out for this, Tammy probably did some minor damage that will affect Spy's opening weekend.  This still has a chance to be a 40 million plus opener, but I'm going the safe route and predict this will open around 35 million.  But mark my words.  This will hold well and be one of the leggier films of the summer with all those good reviews.

 

-The more surprising story of the weekend would normally be this.  Insidious Chapter 3 actually getting good reviews.  The first Insidious movie came out in 2011 and became a surprise hit, which of course led to a sequel in 2013 that wasn't as well received but in typical horror franchise fashion led to much more profit than the original.  Now we have the third movie that this time doesn't have Patrick Wilson, Rose Byrne, or James Wan as director.  Now we have Dermot Mulroney and the antagonist from Disney Channel sitcom A.N.T. Farm (Stefanie Scott).  What's surprising as I've mentioned are the reviews.  They aren't great, but they are good for the horror genre.  Which means I don't think this will completely die out quite as fast as the second one did after it's big opening weekend in 2013.  Still, give this one about 23 million or so this weekend, with possibly more wiggle room to grow if the audiences like it as much as the critics do for horror movies.

 

-Entourage.  I liked this show back in the day.  Huge guilty pleasure fodder.  But I'm speechless this movie exists.  While I do like the initial trailers for this, the interest for it has kinda died down for me as I'm reading the reviews questioning this movies existence.  Bad reviews and bad buzz can hurt interest in a movie (see: Aloha).  Still, it's opening day was Wednesday and it has already made 7 million so far, but the fact that San Andreas jumped ahead of it on Thursday shows that this is not going to perform the way Warner Brothers was probably hoping it would.  I'm still going to give this some benefit of the doubt for opening weekend since there will probably be some sort of rush to see this since Entourage does have a fanbase from it's HBO run.  I'm going to say about 15 million this weekend, but this will probably fall fast after this weekend.

 

 

Now for the holdovers:

 

-San Andreas....wow.  I had a feeling this was going to overperform it's initial forecast of 30 million, but wow not even I saw this coming.  It made nearly 55 million last weekend and just goes to show how big of a star The Rock really is.  His social media campaigning as well as his talk show promotion just goes to show how huge of a promoter this guy is.  He really is a bonafide A-lister....but just like disaster movies before it, I still expect it to fall this weekend by over 50%.  Then fall even more next weekend when the box office slayer that will be Jurassic World comes and steals away it's action movie audience.  I'm going to give this 25 million and it will inch out Insidious Chapter 3 to be the number two film this weekend.

 

-I thought Aloha was going to outperform it's expectation of a 10 million opening weekend.  I mean take a look at the cast for this movie: Bradley Cooper, Emma Stone, Rachel McAdams, Bill Murray, John Krasinski, Danny McBride, Alec Baldwin...not to mention a prestigious director in Cameron Crowe.  However, just as I mentioned a few comments ago, sometimes a movie can't escape bad reviews and bad buzz...and boy did Aloha have all that.  Aloha is one of the worst reviewed movies of 2015 so far and it had tons of bad buzz over it's portrayal of Asian-American actors.  Still, it made 10 million as projected, but all that bad buzz means this will fall hard.  I'm thinking it's going to make 4 million this weekend if that.

 

-Otherwise, the leftovers of Pitch Perfect 2, Mad Max: Fury Road, and Tomorrowland will all make around the 7-9 million range.  Boy was I wrong about Tomorrowland holding well.  It doesn't matter that it's the only PG movie on the market apparently.  Sorry to say this, but this is going to be a huge box office bust for Disney.  Good thing that Pixar movie Inside Out will probably help heal the wounds of Tomorrowland's box office performance.

[Katniss]

Wow, I'm a little surprised that reviews for Spy are good. But maybe Paul Feig and Melissa McCarthy really are a dynamite team because I freaking loved The Heat. The trailers for Spy do look funny so perhaps it's one to check out.

[Clappy]

So yeah...this weekend.  All I'm going to say is that Jurassic World can't get here soon enough to help try to breathe life into the domestic box office.  Here are the results.

 

1. Spy - 29 million / 29 million

2. San Andreas  - 25.8 million / 98.4 million

3. Insidious Chapter 3 - 22.6 million / 22.6 million

4. Entourage - 10.3 million / 17.7 million

5. Mad Max: Fury Road - 7.8 million / 130.6 million

6. Pitch Perfect 2 - 7.6 million / 160.9 million

7. Tomorrowland - 7.2 million / 76.4 million

8. The Avengers 2 - 6.3 million / 438.2 million

9. Aloha - 3.2 million / 16.3 million

10. Poltergeist - 2.7 million / 44.3 million

 

Thoughts:
 

-Spy is by no means a box office disappointment despite being under my initial projection.  The good thing about comedies is that the budgets are rarely that large and are usually made at a relatively reasonable price.  Spy is going to be a hit with the great reviews and the good audience feedback.  Who I think is to blame for the underwhelming opening weekend is both the aftermath of 2014's Tammy and 20th Century Fox's advertising campaign.  I already went into detail about the former, but the latter, this could have easily been a 40 million opener if advertised properly.  But eh, I'm not too worried about the box office for Spy.  With Paul Feig and Melissa McCarthy's track record, I'm all but certain that this movie will have great legs.  So we'll watch closely next weekend.  This could hit disappointment territory if it doesn't hold well next weekend since this is PERFECT counter programming for next weekend's huge release.

 

-San Andreas fell over 50% as expected, but this is going to be a good box office performer for Warner Brothers with a final trajectory of somewhere between 140-150 million.

 

-Insidious Chapter 3 earned around the same area as I was expecting and will probably perform like any other horror sequel.  These films are profitable, so expect Chapters 4 and 5 to come out in the coming years because MONEY.

 

-Oh Entourage.  This isn't a bomb, but this is definitely disappointing.  I guess not everyone was asking for this HBO motion picture.  Things aren't going to get that much better from here and Ari Gold will need to choose his projects more carefully next time.

 

-Our holdover bunch isn't that much to talk about.  Mad Max is still holding great and is definitely going to outperform it's budget now turning this one into a win for Warner Bros.  Pitch Perfect 2 is obviously a huge win for Universal with all of this additional money made.  The Avengers 2 is now in the Top 10 domestic earners of all time.  Meanwhile, Tomorrowland is still proving to be a huge loss for Disney in terms of revenue.  Aloha and Poltergeist.....both will be out of the Top 10 by next weekend.  Especially since that Love and Mercy film I mentioned last post made over 2 million in limited release.  Wouldn't surprise me if Love and Mercy cracks the Top 10 next weekend since Aloha and Poltergeist are fading fast.

 

 

Overall, not a bad weekend by any means, but this could have been a bigger weekend in terms of revenue.  2015 summer box office is trailing 2014 box office year to date.  That could change next weekend since Jurassic World has huge potential.  I definitely think this is going to crack 70-80 million at least.  But with good reviews, this could maybe make over 100 million.  Guess we'll have to wait and see.

[Clappy]

Yeah I've been distracted lately, but it's time for a two week update.  The weekend prior, we saw Jurassic World obliterate opening weekend with a brand new record of 208 million.  That's astounding.  I didn't even picture this happening.  I thought it would make Top 10 opening weekends of all time with 150 million something, but definitely not this.  Nothing else even mattered.  So let's go over this past weekend instead which was also record setting.

 

1. Jurassic World - 106.6 million / 402.8 million

2. Inside Out - 90.4 million / 90.4 million

3. Spy - 11.2 million / 75 million

4. San Andreas - 8.7 million / 132.7 million

5. Dope - 6.1 million / 6.1 million

6. Insidious Chapter 3 - 4 million / 45.3 million

7. Pitch Perfect 2 - 3.5 million / 177.7 million

8. Mad Max: Fury Road - 3 million / 143.8 million

9. The Avengers: Age of Ultron - 2.8 million / 449.4 million

10. Tomorrowland - 2.2 million / 87.9 million

 

Thoughts:

 

-Jurassic World did it again.  After setting the opening weekend record the weekend prior, this time it set the second weekend record.  At the same time, it also became the fastest film to get to 300 million and 400 million.  This is a box office behemoth we are currently witnessing taking out every record in it's path.  Now comes the big question.  What's next?  The race to 500 million will definitely be in the cards as I see it taking out that record sometime next week depending on how it's week day performances go.  Also, will it keep holding this well?  I have no clue.  Right now, I'm picturing this ending up around the 650 million range domestically when it's all said and done.  As much as I would like to see it break Avatar's record, it's not going to happen.  Avatar's box office run was a once in a lifetime run that we probably won't see again anytime soon so no film will reach 760 million anytime soon.  But Jurassic World will definitely be a Top 5 domestic box office film without a doubt.

 

-Jurassic World wasn't the only film setting records this weekend.  Inside Out opened way beyond the normal Pixar opening weekend norm for non-sequels.  I guess that one year break made the rush to see Inside Out that much bigger.  Inside Out unfortunately is the first Pixar film to not open number one at the box office, but the bigger story is that it's the second highest Pixar opening with 90 million, which also breaks the largest opening weekend record for a non-number one film.  It also broke the record for highest opening weekend for an original property with the original record belonging to Avatar with 77 million.  With all of the positive feedback as well as critical praise, Inside Out may have not hit number one this weekend, but second place has never looked so good.  Can't wait to see this very soon.

 

-Glad to see Spy still holding well.  It may not be the most buzzed about Paul Feig film and people will probably look at this thinking that it should have earned more if it was advertised better, but Spy will be profitable and make over 100 million.  This is a win for 20th Century Fox that could have been a smash.

 

-What's shocking to me is seeing how well San Andreas held this weekend.  After getting it's legs kicked out from under it by Jurassic World last weekend, it fell nearly 40 percent this weekend which is surprising.  This film was already a win for Warner Brothers, but this could still keep earning more if it keeps it up.

 

-Now here's a film that might become a cult classic.  Inside Out wasn't the only new well-reviewed release this weekend with indie dramedy Dope.  This movie looks very good and I plan on catching this as well.  Sure it may have opened with a whimper with 6.1 million and I do have to question it's summer release as it could have opened better in the spring or fall, but I definitely see this getting cult status once it hits DVD as more people should see this.

 

-Now we hit the leftover parade with Insidious Chapter 3 still holding well for a horror movie.  It could possibly earn a bit more than the 50 million I anticipated to outgross a bit more than the original.  Pitch Perfect 2 will finish somewhere in the 180 million range as Universal prepares for an unnecessary third one because these films are making huge profit.  Mad Max will finish with 150, but will have to wait for worldwide profits to official deem this as profitable.  The Avengers 2 is now the seventh highest grossing movie of all time and will have to settle with being eighth of all time once Jurassic World surpasses it in a week or two.  And last is Tomorrowland, the Disney financial failure that will only sit back and wonder why they didn't market this better.

 

 

Well guys, the summer box office season is finally red hot after being cold the prior weeks I did this recap.  The prior weekend and last weekend not only surpassed expectations, but they are two of the most profitable cinema weekends of all time.  Next weekend could possibly keep that hot streak up as we have two new releases in Ted 2 and Max.  Ted 2 has been tracking very well (despite me thinking the previews have been lackluster) and it could honestly surprise us with a 50-60 million opening weekend.  Max on the other hand is the real wild card.  This was added onto the summer schedule barely a few months ago and it's a tricky one to forecast.  This story about a navy seal canine could hit people in the soft spots like Marley and Me and other movies about dogs and with how people reacted to American Sniper a few months ago, people might shelve out their money to see this with an opening weekend of maybe 15-20.  Who knows, but with Jurassic World still being red hot and Inside Out being adored by many, next weekend could be just as wild.

[Clappy]

A few days late here, but I figure I would do a one-two punch and comment on the new releases today as well as recap last weekend.  So away we go!

 

1. Jurassic World - 54.5 million / 503 million

2. Inside Out - 52.3 million / 185.1 million

3. Ted 2 - 33.5 million / 33.5 million

4. Max - 12.1 million / 12.1 million

5. Spy - 7.9 million / 88.5 million

6. San Andreas - 5.4 million / 142 million

7. Dope - 2.8 million / 11.7 million

8. Insidious Chapter 3 - 2 million / 49.7 million

9. Mad Max: Fury Road - 1.8 million / 147 million

10. The Avengers: Age of Ultron - 1.7 million / 452.4 million

 

Thoughts:

 

-Well the big story of the past weekend is the box office performance of Ted 2, which I'll get to shortly.  But kudos to Jurassic World and Inside Out for both holding very well.  So let's start with the three week champion Jurassic World.  What I would like to point out is that this is also outperforming the original Jurassic Park in admission sales as well.  This is very healthy for a franchise that has been nonexistent for fifteen years and goes to show how much this franchise has grown and how it is all the more likely we are getting more Jurassic Park movies in the near future.  Even with the underperformance of Ted 2, it's safe to declare that Universal has been on a massive hot streak as of not only this year, but the past few.  They know how to market their movies well most of the time and it's a rarity when they have a major miss anymore.  The Big 3 studios to me right now are Warner Brothers third, Disney second, and Universal first.  Care to argue that case?  Feel free in the comment section below.  But back to the movies themselves, Jurassic World is still on course to be at least the fourth highest grossing movie of all time.  It just depends on how well it holds here on out because this definitely could finish third if it holds the way it's holding, but I can still see a big drop coming that could solidify it as fourth, but more on that later.

 

-Inside Out finishes second and the word of mouth is incredibly strong as it has a smaller drop than Jurassic World.  That's amazing news for Pixar as it needed this badly to show that they haven't lost their edge with the plethora of sequels we've been getting in the 2010's.  The more interesting projection for how this will finish is if that word of mouth is still strong by next weekend where this animated movie will face a major test with another major animated picture in Minions.  I do think Minions will steal A LOT of Inside Out's business, but Inside Out's strong reviews will make it a tough out.  Either way, I see this being one of the more successful Pixar movies all time financially and will join Toy Story 3 and Finding Nemo in the exclusive 300 million or more club.  Big win for Pixar.

 

-Now comes the story of the box office weekend.  Where did Ted 2 go wrong?  I honestly thought the audience was there and willing to come out based off of goodwill alone for the original Ted.  I thought for sure that this would be review proof.  But maybe I'm not giving this movie's target audience enough credit.  The more I think about it, the more I feel like The Hangover Part II has really sharpened audience acceptance for R rated comedy sequels.  In the aspect of that you really have to do something to prove that this sequel should exist, otherwise audiences will go spend their money elsewhere.  22 Jump Street did just that and it reaped the financial benefits for it, but I haven't seen a single R rated comedy sequel succeed since then...once again, feel free to comment below if I'm wrong otherwise.  Ted 2 definitely looked like more of the same except subtract Mila Kunis and add Amanda Seyfried.  The negative to mixed reviews probably didn't help matters either.  

 

All that being said, despite the underperformance....this still has a chance to be financially successful for it's genre.  The budget for comedy movies are not that big and the only cause for concern is how much Universal spent on marketing.  I think in the long term picture, Ted 2 will finish just short of 100 million, but this isn't a disaster that people are making this out to be.  Yes money will be left on the table and maybe if this came out a year ago, it could have been more financial.  The one thing I would like to point out is that Seth MacFarlane does need to plan his next project more carefully.  Because one thing I'm not ruling out is that people are catching on to his shtick now more than ever.  He may be a smart man since he is a multi-millionaire, but all of the goodwill towards him and his projects are starting to run bare dry.

 

-Max finishes fourth and....yeah I don't have much to say.  It's reviews are mixed, it's target audience showed up, and this movie didn't really break out.  I probably sounded silly in the post above thinking that this could surprise people because it literally just appeared on the schedule as of last month.  With no real major money draw, this had no chance replicating American Sniper or even coming anywhere close to a fifth of how that movie opened.  So yeah, Max will make 35-40 million and just disappear nearly as quickly as it came on the release schedule.

 

-Next stop, leftover city.  Spy is fifth as it inches closer to the 100 million club. San Andreas is sixth as it inches closer to my projected finish of 150 million.  Dope is seventh as it is destined for cult film status despite being a box office non-factor.  Eighth, ninth, and tenth are Insidious 3, Mad Max FR, and The Avengers 2 as two of those three are probably spending their last weekends in the Top 10.  I have no clue which one will be the one to stay, but it will be a virtual non-factor.

 

 

Now that I got that out of the way we have the 4th of July box office weekend coming up and our two new major releases come out today.  We have a couple limited releases coming out Friday but they will all be a virtual non-factor in not just the short term, but the long term scheme of things so I won't even waste the space mentioning them.  Anyway, those two new releases:

Terminator: Genisys

Magic Mike XXL

 

 

Thoughts:

 

-The 4th of July use to be a huge box office weekend in the past, but these past few years have softened as more people would rather celebrate the holiday barbecuing and watching fireworks than herding to the multiplex.  I guess you could make a case that Despicable Me 2 capitalized back in 2013, but the long term success of that movie was not lifted because of it's opening weekend.  Hell 2014 was a huge bust last 4th of July with none of the three new releases catching on.  I don't see 2015 making more 2014, but I don't think 2015 4th of July box office will be nearly as prestigious as the box office holiday use to be in the past.  Allow me to explain.

 

-Terminator Genisys, all time terrible movie title aside, had potential.  It has so many up and coming stars in this movie from actors like Jason Clarke and Jai Courtney (which Hollywood is trying to make a thing....stop making Jai Courtney a thing Hollywood) and an up and coming big name director in Alan Taylor (he will get more work just for Game of Thrones alone).  But Paramount just has been handling this poorly.  Where the movie should be more focused on the plethora of new stars they are trying to launch, the trailers and commercials keep focusing on the return of Arnold Schwarzenegger.  Paramount, the Arnold name brand is not even close to being that strong anymore.  The guy's movies have bombed ever since his big screen return and it's clearly evident that Arnold should not be taken as your big selling point, especially if you are trying to sell an all new Terminator franchise.  You can still market Arnold, but not nearly as heavily as Sony has been thinking he should be the main reason why you should go see this movie.  I haven't even brought out the fact that Genisys is bombing in reviews.  That's going to be a huge factor in this movie underperforming.

 

All that being said, this has a legit chance at opening number one.  Despite bad external marketing, Paramount has been smart at internally aiming this at it's target audience with crossover marketing with WWE on it's build to Wrestlemania season and at sporting events.  So despite looking terrible, it's target audience knows this movie exists.  The Terminator franchise will suffer though because Salvation suffered along the same lines as Genisys before it's release and turned out to only make 125 million domestically.  In my honest opinion, Genisys is looking at around the same ball park...maybe even less.

 

-Then we have Magic Mike XXL.  The movie that officially made Channing Tatum a box office draw....at least in theory back in 2012.  Channing Tatum's name was never the selling point and I think it's become ever the more obvious since then.  But hey, girls can be just as horndoggish as guys and that was clearly evident when this movie made 100 million plus domestically.  And now, the boys are back to flop their junk some more.

 

I'll be honest guys.  I have no idea how this is going to perform.  I can see this underperforming, but at the same time, I can see females coming back for more hardcore nudity.  This is another movie that I'm not going to rule out as a contender for number one either.  I'm not even going to forecast this long term because I just don't have a clue how to picture this turning out.  The one thing that I do know is that anything prestigious about these movies (Matthew McConaughey and director Steven Soderbergh) are both gone, so maybe that might factor in to how much this money will make....I just don't know.  I guess I'll just sit back and wait to see how this is going to do by this time Sunday.

 

-So which movie is going to be number one?  Your guess is as good as mine.  This is the toughest weekend I've projected not just in this thread, but in a long time.  We definitely have four sure fire contenders in:

 

Terminator Genisys

Magic Mike XXL

Jurassic World

Inside Out

 

Any one of these movies can win the weekend.  The former two for being new and having what I listed above.  The latter two because both are just holding so well at the box office right now.  So just that I don't come off like a flip flopper, I'm going to guess that Terminator: Genisys is the number one film this weekend.  Not only because of sequelitis, but just because I know that action junkies will need a new fix after three weeks of only Jurassic World being the relevant option.  But I could easily be wrong and maybe audiences can smell shit coming from miles away.  I guess we'll have to wait and see.  Things are definitely going to be interesting.

[Clappy]

So this may or may not be my last update for about a month with me working nearly every day before vacation and with vacation looming, so I'll briefly cover next weekend's wide releases in this update too. But first, how did last weekend go? Well I was wrong, plain and simple, but here are the results:

1. Inside Out - 29.8 million / 245.9 million

2. Jurassic World - 29.2 million / 556.6 million

3. Terminator: Genisys - 27 million / 42.5 million

4. Magic Mike 2 - 12.9 million / 27.9 million

5. Ted 2 - 11.1 million / 58.5 million

6. Max - 6.6 million / 25.3 million

7. Spy - 5.1 million / 97.5 million

8. San Andreas - 2.8 million / 147.1 million

9. Me and Earl and the Dying Girl - 1.2 million / 4 million

10. Dope - 1.1 million / 14.1 million

Thoughts:

-That tight race I was predicting was indeed tight, but it turned out to be a three way race instead of a four way. Either way, Terminator did not finish first. It turned out to be Inside Out, which finally got it's chance to shine as the number one movie in America and rightfully so because it was never going to get another chance after this weekend with Minions looming. It's still on it's way to a 300 million plus domestic final tally, but the bigger question will be is it's extremely positive word of mouth going to help the movie hold up next weekend with the way it's performing? That will be very tough to predict, but I'm going to go out on a limb and say that it will fall next weekend, but that positive word of mouth will help it rebound the following weekend after Minions does it massive business on opening weekend. Either way, glad to see Pixar return to form this positively.

-Jurassic World set another record this weekend, what else is new, as it became the fastest film to 550 million as it only took 24 days to do so. I've ran out of things to say about it's performance at the box office domestically, so I'll talk about worldwide as it's now number 5 all time and will for sure pass Furious 7 in the next week for fourth.

-Terminator finished third and what a disappointment it's opening weekend turned out to be. For a film that cost over 150 million to make and a lot more to advertise (that Super Bowl ad was not cheap folks), this series is probably dead unless it somehow gets saved by worldwide grosses. The Terminator films have grossly underperformed since 2 and that's sad because this is one of the classic iconic action franchises in Hollywood cinema history. Unless it somehow gets a serious reinvention instead of being taken as light as it has been with reboots and sequels in the 2000s, I don't see another Terminator movie being made ever again. This movie might not even break 100 million with all of the negative word of mouth and reviews.

-Magic Mike 2 came in fourth and it's legs got pulled out (no pun intended) after it's opening day. While this won't make nearly as much as the original, the good news about these movies are that they are cheap to make and Magic Mike 2 already made back it's budget, so this will probably be a winner for Warner Brothers regardless of it underperforming the original.

-Wow, did Ted 2 fall hard it's second weekend. You rarely see a non horror movie fall nearly that much on it's second weekend and this is becoming even bigger of a disappointment for the sequel. Yeah it's going to make back it's budget no matter how much of a disappointment this becomes, but when the original made over 200 million domestic, the fact that this isn't even going to make 100 million is just flat out shocking.

-Max held up surprisingly well to finish sixth as it didn't fall nearly that much. So this little promoted family dramedy might make some extra cash since it's budget wasn't nearly that much.

-Spy and San Andreas both finished seventh and eighth as both are nearing the ends of their domestic run and will both drop out of the Top 10 in two weeks with all these new releases coming.

-Me and Earl and the Dying Girl finished ninth and this definitely blindsided me as it got a big expansion on Friday and managed to crack the Top 10. This little indie darling isn't going to be that much of a factor in the long scheme of things, but it might manage to stay in the Top 10 for awhile if distributor Fox Searchlight does it typical slow burn expansion that it's known for doing with summer indie darling films like this.

-Dope finishes tenth and maybe distributor Open Road Films should have taken a note from Fox Searchlight and did a slow burn expansion for a well reviewed indie darling film and not a flat out wide release. It could have probably been far more profitable that route instead of probably finding an afterlife in DVD/Blu-Ray release.

Now that I got those out of the way, let's talk about next weekend real quick.

-No doubt in my mind that Minions is going to be huge. It's got a lot of things working in it's favor. Awareness is incredibly high, the Despicable Me movies are family favorites of the last five years, the fact that it's going to be the newest family wide release for weeks, reviews are good/decent. All that is making this one out to be one of the biggest films of the summer. All that being said, how will it do opening weekend? The Despicable Me movies have never cracked 100 million, but with how well the second film was able to hold up for as long as it did, I think Minions could possibly break 100 million. If Inside Out was able to almost do it, I think an established property like Minions could do it. I'm going to go out on a limb and say this earns approximately 110 million it's opening weekend. The one thing I know Minions probably won't do is have great legs like Inside Out is currently having. So while Minions will have the bigger opening weekend, it won't earn nearly as much as Inside Out will.

-There is another new release this coming weekend? Yes, two actually. The first is an interestingly advertised horror movie called The Gallows. It's generating interesting buzz with how it's being commercialized as more than just another found footage horror entry as word of mouth is coming out saying that this has some good scares by showing actual audience reactions in commercials. However, for some odd reason, Warner Brothers isn't leaking reviews for this just yet, so that's usually not a good sign for the product in general. If reviews do turn out to be positive, then one will wonder why they didn't reveal them earlier so they can capitalize on positive word of mouth because well reviewed horror movies do generate good business in the summer. See The Conjuring, one of the best horror movies of the 2010s, as a great example of this. Either way, I think this will open with 15 million since it is a found footage horror movie and those don't really open that high.

-The second is Self/Less and guys, this smells and looks like a box office bomb. I like Ryan Reynolds, but the guy has not anchored films on his own that well with multiple failures attached with him as the star. See: Turbo and R.I.P.D. as two huge bombs. Everything about this movie looks like a turd and I think Focus Features is well aware that this is going to be a terrible performer for them, hence the smaller theater count. I'll be generous and say this opens with 8 million, but it could honestly be a lot less. That's how bad this sci-fi film looks.

-As for holdovers? I think Jurassic World still holds well and it will probably finish second. Inside Out will probably fall it's hardest yet and finish with 15 million this weekend battling The Gallows for third. Terminator will probably fall hard and finish fifth, while Magic Mike 2 and Ted 2 will continue their respective descents to the bottom. Ironic since both of the originals came out in the same weekend of 2012 and now both are underperforming in 2015.

[Clappy]

So yeah, it's been a month since I've done this due to vacation.  So consider this my brief recap over the last month's worth of box office news:

 

-I definitely called Minions massive opening weekend.  I also called Minions fading fast afterwards.  Every weekend after Minions close to breaking record for an opening weekend for an animated movie, it's fallen hard over 50%.  Which is the polar opposite of what Inside Out did in terms of box office holding power.  So while Minions may have won the opening weekend battle, Inside Out is going to win the box office war domestically as it has and will continue to earn more money than Minions.  Further proving that word of mouth is having a huge effect on box office results this summer.

 

-Ant-Man underperforming compared to other MCU Phase 2 films doesn't surprise.  While Guardians of the Galaxy was also an original property, that had a lot going for it with it's concept, it's star power, and it pretty much coming off as an outer space Avengers movie.  Ant-Man is not as well known and while it does have some big names like Paul Rudd and Michael Douglas...let's be honest, none of them are as big presently as Chris Pratt.  With all of the buzz surrounding the movie during it's pre-production phase having to switch directors over creative directions after Edgar Wright left the movie, I'm honestly surprised how many good reviews Ant-Man got.  It probably would have gotten even better reviews if so many critics weren't holding the fact that they would rather have seen Edgar Wright's version.  Either way, Ant-Man will probably not make that much more than 150-160 million earning only more than The Incredible Hulk in terms of MCU movies, but guys.  This could have ended up performing a lot worse because at least Ant-Man is still profitable despite underperforming compared to other MCUP2 movies.  Plus I think it might be better than Age of Ultron to be completely honest.

 

-Trainwreck is proving to be the exact opposite.  This movie is holding very well and is getting super strong reviews.  Amy Schumer is a star to be reckoned with for years to come as this movie just launched her career to even higher levels.  That being said, I do wonder if the unfortunate news of what happened in a movie theater in Louisiana might have effected this a few million dollars in box office.  No one knows and I pray for the victims of the Louisiana movie theater shooting.

 

-Pixels sucks.  Need I say more?  Well if I can, Adam Sandler's career is in free fall for his live action movies.  Pixels is underperforming compared to what Sony had in mind and will be another Sandler movie that won't make back it's budget unless worldwide box office somehow bails him out.  He couldn't have left the box office at a better time as his next four live action movies will reportedly be released specifically towards Netflix, which don't factor in box office revenue.  As I've said many times since the release of Pixels, maybe Adam Sandler will find his passion for film-making again during his time away because these last five years have had some of the most uninspiring movies of his career.  Say what you want about his 2000s movies but at least effort was put into them to make them watchable.

 

-I'm shocked to see Southpaw outperforming Paper Towns.  I thought for sure Paper Towns would have earned more since it's a John Green novel.  I guess that shows how much Jake Gylenhaal has in terms of box office pull.

 

-Glad to see MI5 doing well.  Hopefully that lays off the Tom Cruise hate because I will admit it.  He doesn't deserve it.  He's one of the hardest working men in Hollywood as he knows how to promote his movies damn well and his movies over the past five years have been pretty damn good.  It's a crime Edge of Tomorrow didn't earn more because that's one of the best sci-fi movies of the past decade.  I can't wait to go see Rogue Nation.

 

-Vacation...wow.  This might be one of the most disappointing movies of the summer tbh.  It had all the potential in the world to earn a lot more than it has so far.  The Griswold movies are a comedy treasure and if any series could have been rebooted into the present and done so well, it deserved to be this one.  It had A LOT of goodwill going for it and could be a whole new batch of movies for this franchise.  But the negative reviews have been telling and what could have been an easy 100 million at the box office is now going to be lucky to even earn half of that.  I don't know what's more disappointing.  This or Tomorrowland.....oh wait....we have this weekend.....

 

 

 

So let's look at this weekend's new releases:

 

Fantastic Four

The Gift

Shaun the Sheep Movie

Ricki and the Flash

Dragon Ball Z: Resurrection No. 'F'

 

Thoughts:

 

....what the hell happened to the Fantastic Four?  No like seriously....10% fresh on Rotten Tomatoes?  What the fuck?  Even the Tim Story pieces of shit had more respectable scores than that.  Everything I'm reading about this movie bad.  Hell my friend texted me after the midnight release:

 

Dude.  You need to see this.  It's the worst comic book movie I've ever seen in my life.  Literally nothing happens.  It makes 2005 FF doing nothing look great.

 

That's legit scary.  I might have to rethink my movie going plans this weekend since I have a trip with my dad and a trip with friends planned.  Everything about this movie sounds like a disaster, but I don't think that will effect it's opening weekend.  This could still make in the 40-50 million range because these characters are still beloved in the comic book world and even disasters like Green Lantern and Ghost Rider still managed decent opening weekends no matter how panned their movies became.

 

-The Gift sounds like a great first movie from upstart movie studio STX Entertainment.  We don't see that many thrillers in wide release especially in the summer anymore as I feel like it's a genre that is on the rocks.  We had a thriller earlier this year in The Boy Next Door, but it's box office was only due to Jennifer Lopez being a marketable enough name.  Unfortunately, Jason Bateman, Rebecca Hall, and Joel Edgerton are not marketable enough.  Which is a shame because all are credible actors and Joel Edgerton's first directorial effort makes me think he can be a capable cross-actor/director like Ben Affleck currently is.  We'll see if great word of mouth can carry this to better legs, but I expect a 8 or 9 million opening weekend debut.

 

-Wow Ricki and the Flash.  This is just....wow.  I honestly don't know what to say.  Meryl Streep as your lead, Diablo Cody as your screenwriter, and Jonathan Demme as your director.  That's such a bizarre product with meh reviews around the 50 something range.  Maybe Sony realizes that now and maybe that's why it's not being released to that many theaters with 1,800 which is still technically a wide release, but not that wide for a wide release.  Maybe Meryl Streep fans will drive this to a better opening weekend, but my guess is an opening weekend of 6 million.

 

-Which leaves two family entertainment films that are surprisingly the best reviewed movies of the weekend (and also started on Wednesday).  The first is the technical wide release Shaun the Sheep.  Another brilliant Aardman Studio film that is shockingly one of the best reviewed movies of the year at 99%.  Granted, Aardman films are always getting great reviews, I've never seen one this universally praised in quite some time from them.  That being said, Aardman Studio films tend to be so-so box office performers domestically.  Worldwide is another story, but I don't expect Shaun the Sheep to perform that greatly.  Even with kids being aware of it due to the Disney Channel shorts from years ago.  I'm going to give it 6 million, but hey, maybe families will catch on to the acclaim and make it higher.  We'll see.

 

-The other great reviewed movie (granted it only has 8 reviews) is DBZ.  And this movie will be a box office non factor to be honest.  It's an event movie that is only lasting a week and it's not even at 1,000 theaters.  Now why am I projecting it though?  Because DBZ has a bigger following than people expect.  It could surprise and make 3 or 4 million pushing out some of the holdovers we've had for a month now if the fanbase comes out in droves....but that's a BIG if.

 

 

As for our leftovers....the only one that can be a factor into this weekend in Rogue Nation.  If Fantastic Four bad buzz drives people away from seeing it and seeing this instead, Rogue Nation could possibly win the weekend.  But I honestly don't see that happening.  This will earn 30 million and be our number two movie of the weekend.  The rest of the leftovers will all be fighting with our new releases for spots 3-10.  And the leftovers I see fighting for those spots are: Vacation, Ant-Man, Minions, Trainwreck, and Pixels.  I honestly don't know what will stick or what will fall out of the Top 10, but this weekend has the potential to excite and disappoint.  I'll be watching this weekend closely because it could be an interesting one.

[BoJack Horseman]

I really hope MI5 wins, it was an incredible movie.

[CyanideFishbone]

I don't think Minions are going to fade away for a while. With Despicable Me 3 coming out in 2017 and Illumination marketing the hell out of them (Me and two of my cousins went to Walmart and we tried to count as many minions as possible and came out with 61) they're not going away anytime soon, as the audiences love them. 

[Clappy]

I don't think Minions are going to fade away for a while. With Despicable Me 3 coming out in 2017 and Illumination marketing the hell out of them (Me and two of my cousins went to Walmart and we tried to count as many minions as possible and came out with 61) they're not going away anytime soon, as the audiences love them.

Not entirely what I meant. What I meant was that the movie Minions is fading out of the Top 10 alarmingly fast. Four weekends ago it made 115 million. Last weekend, it barely made 12. The movie was very frontloaded in terms of earning revenue and it'll probably be out of the Top 10 very soon.

Of course as an entity, the Minions aren't going away anytime soon.