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HawkbitAlpha

Tomorrow's the big day, 'Murica: Midterm Election Day.

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Tomorrow, voters across the country are going to be faced with the task of speaking our minds to Congress through the ballot box. We'll be voting on the entire House of Representatives, a third of the Senate, and a few state governor seats. For you registered voters reading this thread, the ones who intend to vote, my only question is this: who are you voting for?

I live in south Mississippi, of course, and I have three candidates who I'm going to support tomorrow:

  • Bennie Thompson for MS 2nd District Representative
  • David Baria for Senate (regular election)
  • Mike Espy for Senate (special election)

Are you voting tomorrow? If so, who for?

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I'm only 17 so I can't vote, but I registered over a year ago to vote. However I really wish I could; here in North Carolina our state legislature, to be frank, is absolutely fucked and immoral beyond belief.

 

I don't want to brag but I'm a bit of a political buff so I want to give a quick outline of pivotal Senate races for everyone. I can do Governors races later, but not House, as that's just too much.

 

CYANIDEFISHBONE'S SENATE GUIDE 2018 (TRYING TO BE AS NONPARTISAN AS POSSIBLE)

Arizona: US Rep Kyrsten Sinema (Democrat) is running against Martha McSally, another US Rep. Sinema is a Blue Dog (centrist wing of the Democratic Party that tends to shift more rightward) Democrat while McSally is a conservative who distanced herself from Trump in 2016 but repositioned herself with Trump during this campaign. If elected, Sinema will become the first Democrat elected to the Senate in Arizona since 1994 and will become the first openly bisexual member of the US Senate and the second lesbian elected to the US Senate. The most recent projection shows Sinema one point above McSally.

Florida: Incumbent Senator Bill Nelson (Democrat) is running against Florida governor Rick Scott in probably the largest re-election challenge during his time in the Senate. Bill Nelson is a relatively moderate Democrat while Rick Scott is an extremely pro-Trump Republican. The most recent projection shows Nelson 4 points ahead of Scott.

Indiana: One-term Democratic senator Joe Donnelly is up for re-election against state representative Mike Braun. Joe Donnelly was elected in 2012 after longterm Indiana Republican Richard Lugar lost re-nomination to an extreme Tea Party candidate, who's campaign would be riddled with scandals, giving Donnelly an edge in a mostly conservative state. Donnelly is again, a mostly moderate Democrat while Braun is pro-Trump Republican. The most recent projection shows Donnelly up by 2 points against Braun.

Mississippi (Special): This is definitely one of the most interesting elections this year, in my opinion. In April, long-time Mississippi Republican Thad Cochran resigned over personal health issues. Mississippi Secretary of Agriculture Cindy Hyde-Smith was appointed to fill Cochran's seat (kind of goes without saying but Hyde-Smith is a Republican). Obviously as a new senator is appointed like this a special election must be held. The main 3 candidates are Hyde-Smith, Mike Espy (who was Secretary of Agriculture under Bill Clinton and the former representative for Mississippi's 2nd congressional district), and Chris McDaniel (a state senator). Hyde-Smith is an extremely pro-Trump Republican, Espy is a mostly moderate Democrat, and Chris McDaniel is a Tea Party politician with the backing of Ron Paul. If no candidate secures 50% of the vote, according to Mississippi state law a runoff election will occur on the 27th where the top two candidates with the most votes will campaign against each other. Espy is pretty much destined to be one of the top two, but depending on whether Hyde-Smith or McDaniel wins the election could go either way. Every poll putting Espy against McDaniel shows Espy leading, while Hyde-Smith vs. Espy could be competitive as well. If elected, Espy will become the first Democrat elected to the Senate from Mississippi since 1988 (and to be frank, the first one who isn't a fucking racist), as well as the first African American elected to the Senate from Mississippi. If Espy wins, he will also become the 4th African American in the Senate. The most recent projection shows Espy at 40 percent, Hyde-Smith at 27 percent and McDaniel at 28 percent. This seat could go anyway, it's extremely hard to tell.

Missouri: Two-term Democratic senator Claire McCaskill is up for re-election against Missouri Attorney General Josh Hawley. McCaskill was re-elected by narro margins each of the times she was elected in the past, with her being elected during the Democratic boom in 2006 and being elected in 2012 after her candidate, much like Indiana's, was an extreme Tea Party candidate with a campaign riddled with scandals. Being in Missouri, McCaskill is a fairly moderate Democrat while Hawley is a pro-Trump Republican. The most recent projection shows Hawley 3 points above McCaskill.

Nevada: One-term GOP senator Dean Heller is up for re-election against Democratic US Rep Jacky Rosen. This is a seat that has been heavily targeted by Democrats as Heller is the only GOP senator this year up for re-election in a state Clinton won in 2016. Heller is a pro-Trump Republican while Rosen is a somewhat progressive Democrat with the backing of former Nevada senator and Democratic Senate Leader Harry Reid who retired in 2017 after serving for 30 years. The race has been very competitive as the most recent projection shows Heller and Rosen tied, but most people believe Rosen has a slight edge as Nevada, whilst a split state, has been shifting leftward.

North Dakota: One-term Democratic senator Heidi Heitkamp is up for re-election against GOP US Rep Kevin Cramer. This is seen as the GOP's best seat to target Democrats as North Dakota is an extremely conservative state. Heitkamp, as many other red-state Democrats is relatively centrist while Cramer is a pro-Trump Republican. The polls have been shifting more in Cramer's favor recently; i just don't trust the ones I'm seeing, but FiveThirtyEight gives Cramer a 3 in 4 chance of winning while Heitkamp has a 1 in 4 chance of winning.

Tennessee: Two-term GOP Senator Bob Corker is retiring, leaving an open seat. The GOP candidate is US Rep Marsha Blackburn while the Democratic candidate is popular former governor Phil Bredesen. Blackburn is an extremely pro-Trump Republican while Bredesen is a moderate Democrat that was popular on both sides of the political spectrum when he was governor (when he ran for re-election in 2006 all counties in deep-red Tennessee went blue). So it seems certain that Bredesen would win, right? It's actually a pretty split race, with the most recent projection saying Blackburn and Bredesen are tied. Early polls also tended to favor Bredesen while later polls have been shifting in Blackburn's favor. Interestingly, Bob Corker also originally endorsed Blackburn as his successor but revoked his endorsement 4 days ago, saying both would be good as his successor (Personal opinion: Corker is a spineless piece of shit but this was interesting to note). If elected, Bredesen would be the first Democrat elected to the Senate since 1994.

Texas: Incumbent GOP Senator and former 2016 presidential candidate Ted Cruz is running for re-election against US Rep Beto O'Rourke. This has probably been the most interesting Senate election of the entire year as it has been extremely competitive, unexpectedly as Texas is a conservative stronghold that has not elected a Democrat to a statewide office since 1994. Ted Cruz is a heavily pro-Trump Republican while O'Rourke is a fairly progressive populist Democrat, somewhat in the mold of a modern Bobby Kennedy. Currently, the most recent poll shows the two tied.

 

Okay, that was a pretty nonpartisan look at some key races. Of course vote how you want but in my brutally honest opinion please vote Democrat. Republicans have shown to not care about dignity and honor while serving and while Democrats aren't perfect, in my opinion they'll bring some civility to government in this crazy ass time. As I said vote how you want but that's how I look at it. Also I don't want to see Ted Cruz's stupid ass face again god I hate that man. 

 

Edited by CyanideFishbone

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Well, that was a night. I was so anxious I could barely sleep last night so I got pretty little sleep. Anyway:

 

Despite the Florida one and all the shit in Georgia for the most part the governors races were pretty good. Glad Kansas ditched Kobach. Very happy Colorado has elected the first gay man to ever be elected governor in the US. Very happy Scott Walker lost, and that New Mexico and Michigan flipped blue. Also Nevada elected their first Democratic governor in 20 years!

Democrats took the House, the big takeaway from last night. Glad to see a lot of especially bad Republicans (I'm looking at you Rohrabacher) gone and also huge gain in electing two Muslim women to Congress and several others.

The senate races besides Jacky Rosen's victory were a fucking bloodbath unfortunately. I was expecting North Dakota to flip given Heitkamp has performed awfully in the polls but I thought Missouri and Indiana would hang on, same with Florida, although they're probably doing a recount in Florida. Glad Montana stayed blue though, I was concerned about that seat when the votes started being counted. 

Edited by CyanideFishbone

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